Spain • • • 🌿 Progressive

Mitin político al atardecer en una plaza andaluza, multitud con banderas de España y escenario con atril
Mitin de precampaña en una plaza andaluza al atardecer (imagen ilustrativa generada para este artículo).

Sánchez kicks off pre-campaign in Seville with housing as his banner

The PSOE opened its November 29 pre-campaign in Dos Hermanas (Seville), with Pedro Sánchez centering his speech on housing, while a 40dB poll gives the PP…

--- The context --- Spain's November 29 general election entered its pre-campaign phase on Saturday with two parallel rallies: the PSOE opened its pre-campaign in Dos Hermanas, Seville, one of its historic strongholds in Andalusia, while the PP held its own rally at the Ifema fairgrounds in Madrid. The Socialist event took place at the Los del Río municipal auditorium, in La Alquería park. The rally comes days after the prime minister announced the snap election, with polls still leaving the outlook for the left undefined. The Socialists have chosen two anchors for their opening message: housing as the great social cause and massive turnout on election day. --- The facts --- Francisco Rodríguez, mayor of Dos Hermanas and organizational secretary of the Andalusian PSOE, opened the event. He argued that Pedro Sánchez's project is still alive even though many had written it off years ago, and that the prime minister governs with people in mind. He contrasted purposeful leadership and a social majority with a PP that, in his view, has no project, shows only anger, and can merely follow Vox while doing politics alongside the powerful. Next came María Jesús Montero, secretary general of the Andalusian PSOE and deputy secretary general of the party at the federal level. She said the party will go all out to win this election and thanked Sánchez for choosing Dos Hermanas once again. She argued that the years in government have shown that from the left, with progressive policies, it is possible to grow more, redistribute better, and advance workers' rights despite the right's daily attacks. She portrayed the prime minister as the country's only courageous leader and the world leader in left-wing policies, citing Gaza, the recognition of the Palestinian state, opposition to the war in Iran, and to the invasion of Ukraine. She also attacked the Andalusian regional president's inaction on housing, demanded the resignation of the mayor of Benalmádena over his remarks about an octogenarian woman and of the mayor of Algeciras over what she described as deeply troubling behavior toward women, and closed by calling for social energy to become electoral energy. Pedro Sánchez thanked Montero and Rodríguez and predicted that the opposition will remain in opposition for four more years for failing to do its homework. He centered his speech on housing: he said housing policy has no expiration date and promised that the next parliament, with a broad progressive majority, and a strengthened progressive government will reinforce and keep the housing emergency decree protecting small landlords and tenants from speculation. He recalled that the decree was rejected in Congress last week but voiced confidence in pushing it through, with changes, via a vote in the Permanent Deputation of Congress. Sánchez said every generation has its own struggle and that this era's is housing. In a restrained tone, he paid tribute to Maricarmen, the 87-year-old woman who died this week after being evicted from her home in Madrid, saying that she, along with those mobilizing for fair housing, paved the way, and recalling her wish that no one else suffer what she suffered. The prime minister accused the PP and Vox of changing strategy out of fear of losing, joking that those who used to say everyone should do what they can now prefer that as few people vote as possible. He called on everyone to vote on November 29 to secure, in his words, a PSOE victory. He compared the criticism he faces to the fable of the boy who cried wolf, which he attributed to PP and Vox spokespeople, and described himself as a dog with no master serving ordinary people, predicting that the PSOE will win and govern for four more years. The rally coincided with a 40dB poll, conducted on October 7 and 8 with 800 online interviews and electoral in purpose. It puts the PP first with 31.9% of the vote and a range of 123 to 140 seats, with 132 as the most likely figure; Vox third with 18.9% and between 63 and 74 seats, double the 33 of 2023; and the PSOE second with 28.1%, a slight improvement, and between 105 and 117 seats, below the 121 of 2023. The key is the right-wing sum: together, the PP and Vox would hold between 186 and 214 seats, far above the 176 needed for an absolute majority. The left would total 119 seats: 112 for the PSOE, 5 for the Frente Amplio, the new brand under which Sumar is running, and 2 for Podemos. A joint Frente Amplio–Podemos candidacy would grow the space to the left of the PSOE from 7 to 15 seats, although the PSOE would drop to 106, without changing the outcome: the PP–Vox absolute majority would barely suffer, landing at 196 seats. --- The positions --- The PSOE enters the pre-campaign with a defined narrative: it presents Sánchez as a resilient leader who has survived years of attacks and now embodies the housing cause, while painting the PP as a project-less party dragged along by Vox. The PP faces the pre-campaign from the advantage the polls give it, with the combined PP–Vox total within reach of an absolute majority. The strategy Sánchez attributes to them — discouraging participation — will be an axis of confrontation in the coming weeks, alongside mutual accusations over disinformation about postal voting. --- What remains unknown --- It remains to be seen whether the housing decree can be approved with changes in the Permanent Deputation after its rejection in Congress, and with what scope. Also pending is how voting intention evolves in the seven weeks until November 29, and whether the left narrows the gap separating it from the PP–Vox sum. --- Unanswered questions --- Can the PSOE turn housing into the mobilizing axis for its electorate? Will the appeal to participation be enough to offset the advantage the polls give the right? What effect will the postal-vote debate have on the campaign? Will the housing decree see the light before the election? --- EPM analysis --- The opening confirms that the PSOE will fight this election on social rather than economic terrain, where the polls are unkind to it. Housing, turned into a generational cause by Sánchez himself, works as a bridge between the government's record and citizens' anger, and the tribute to Maricarmen gives that bet a human face. 📌 EPM Take: In EPM's view, the PSOE has opened its pre-campaign with the best card it holds: a social narrative that puts housing at the center and Sánchez as its standard-bearer. The move makes electoral sense, because housing is the fastest-growing concern among young voters and lets the Socialists sidestep the debate over parliamentary arithmetic. But the gap between promise and legislative reality is the strategy's weak flank: without the decree approved, the message remains a statement of intent, and the battle of these seven weeks will be fought between the mobilization Sánchez is calling for and the demobilization he attributes to the right.
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