Abascal opens Vox campaign in Estepona, heads to Ceuta the next day

--- The context --- The pre-campaign for the November 29 general election began with three rallies that anticipate an intense race. A day earlier, Pedro Sánchez headlined a rally in Dos Hermanas (Seville) —where in 2017 he announced his candidacy in the PSOE primaries— and Alberto Núñez Feijóo opened the PP pre-campaign in Madrid alongside Isabel Díaz Ayuso and José Luis Martínez-Almeida. Vox leader Santiago Abascal opted for a different start: a rally in Estepona, Málaga, because his supporters are very close to Spanish lands in Africa and to their compatriots there. From Estepona he announced that the next day he will not be in Madrid for the military parade —where he said he would have liked to be as on so many other occasions— but in Ceuta. --- The facts --- Abascal announced he will spend the next day in Ceuta, where on July 30 and 31 some 70,000 migrants crossed the border illegally. He said he did not want to be part of the official stand in Madrid and preferred to be in Ceuta, which he described as Spanish territory for centuries and vowed would remain Spanish forever. The Vox president criticized the government of Pedro Sánchez and described November 29 as probably the last chance for many Spaniards. He said the hour of truth had arrived, after what he presented as having stopped before the Supreme Court the mass naturalizations of people who had left 60, 70 or 150 years ago, along with their grandchildren and descendants, and he denounced the grandchildren's law as an attempt to alter the electoral roll to steal the election. Faced with favorable polls, he asked his supporters not to grow complacent and called the polls his main enemy for generating excessive confidence. He stressed that on November 29 there would be no family gathering, no football match and no excuse valid enough to keep anyone from the ballot box, and he asked voters to cast their ballots in person unless they had no alternative. He said his distrust was not of the system but of Pedro Sánchez himself, whom he accused of having stolen the election within his own party, and he warned of lies, attempts at cheating, intimidation and provocations. He denied that Vox intends to privatize pensions —a rumor he attributed to a PSOE campaign—, guaranteed they would be paid at whatever cost without specifying a model, and promised to recover the future of young people and access to housing. On housing, he said purchase prices rose 74 percent and rents 40 percent during the Sánchez legislature, which he called the dirtiest government in Spain's history. He noted that over five years five million people arrived in Spain without equivalent housing being built and accused the chief executive of being directly responsible for evictions. He defended remigration —the return of migrants to their countries of origin— as a campaign pillar, built out of love for those inside the country. He thanked those who come to Spain to work and respect the laws, and he was blunt: those who enter illegally must be repatriated, and those who commit crimes must serve their sentences in their own countries and be deported. He also defended national priority and deregulation. --- The positions --- Vox's position is sharp: national sovereignty, control of illegal immigration and defense of Spaniards against a government it accuses of deteriorating housing, pensions and purchasing power. The next-day visit to Ceuta reinforces the territorial message, and the appeal to in-person voting seeks to secure the participation of its electorate. From a conservative reading, the speech connects with a real concern: five million arrivals in five years without equivalent housing, a 74 percent rise in purchase prices and 40 percent in rents. The promise to pay pensions at whatever cost and to put Spaniards first in housing and employment answers demands that the current government, in Vox's view, has ignored throughout the legislature. --- What remains unknown --- It remains to be seen how the PSOE and the PP will respond to the start of the campaign from Estepona and to the next-day visit to Ceuta, whether the polls will keep anticipating the upset, and what model for pensions and housing the party will present. --- Unanswered questions --- Will the polls keep anticipating an electoral upset for November 29? What concrete model for pensions and housing will Vox present? How will the PSOE and the PP respond to the challenge from Estepona? What consequences will the Ceuta visit have? --- EPM analysis --- Vox opens its campaign where its message is strongest: the southern border and the defense of Ceuta as Spanish territory. The speech combines criticism of the government with broad social promises and an uncompromising line on migration. Distrusting the polls shows a party that takes nothing for granted. 📌 EPM Take: In EPM's view, the Estepona launch is a statement of intent: the campaign will be fought on immigration, housing and national sovereignty. The next-day trip to Ceuta turns the national holiday into an act of territorial affirmation that will force the other parties to take a position. If the housing figures resonate with voters and in-person voting works, November 29 could deliver the anticipated upset, the same upset the polls anticipate and Abascal asks his supporters not to believe. The coming weeks will show whether the message holds.

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